Black Friday is on 27 November, less than six weeks away. If your Christmas stock is still in Asia, the first thing to work out is what can actually get here in time. Price comes second.
Here’s where the market stands for UK importers, and how we’d split what to fly and what to ship.
Sea probably won’t get there in time
Sea freight from Asia can take five weeks or more door-to-door once you allow for loading, port handling, customs and delivery at the other end. If your goods aren’t already on a ship, that leaves no room for a delay, and there is nearly always a delay somewhere.
Sea is still the right choice for plenty of your stock. Just not the lines you need on the shelf in November.
Air from China to Europe is cheaper than last year
The wider air freight market is expensive. The Baltic Air Freight Index is up about 24% on last year, thanks to jet fuel prices, the conflict in the Middle East and strong demand on US routes.
Europe is the exception. Freightos has China-Europe air rates at around $3.58 per kg in mid-October, roughly 9% below this time last year, which seems to be down to weaker e-commerce volumes on the lane.
The risk is space, not price
There are signs airlines are moving freight planes to busier routes, such as Asia to the US. If that happens, shippers sending goods to Europe could find fewer good options, even if demand here hasn’t grown. Factories in China are also back after Golden Week, so cargo is returning to departures.
So the price might look fine today, but the best flights fill first. Waiting for a cheaper quote could leave you on a later flight.
And sea freight?
According to Drewry, Asia–Europe container rates fell for 13 weeks in a row before rising this week. Shanghai to Rotterdam is up 6% at $3,522 per 40ft container. Carriers are pushing for higher rates from 19 October, though with ships returning to the Suez Canal it’s not certain they’ll stick.
If you’re planning stock for January onwards, now could be a good time to talk about booking space before prices climb. Hormuz is still unsettled and fuel costs are feeding into surcharges, so it’s worth leaving yourself some flexibility.
What to fly and what to ship
Fly it if:
- You need it for Black Friday or Christmas
- It’s a best-seller or high-value line, where running out costs more than the freight
- It has a fixed launch date
Ship it if:
- It’s for January sales, spring or replenishment
- It’s bulky or heavy and would swallow your margin in air freight
- It’s a steady line you can plan weeks ahead
If you’re unsure, split it. Send a first batch by air for Black Friday and the rest by sea. And if your supplier is in Europe rather than Asia, road is often quicker and cheaper than either.
One thing that catches people out: air freight is charged on whichever is greater, the actual weight or the space the boxes take up. Bulky, lightly packed cartons can cost far more than you expect, so check your packaging before you book.
Five things to do this week
- Confirm cargo-ready dates with your suppliers. Air only works if the goods are ready to collect.
- Check your paperwork. Invoices, packing lists and commodity codes need to be right first time. Customs mistakes undo the time you’ve paid to save.
- Check your cargo insurance covers the full value of the goods, door to door.
- Book delivery slots at your warehouse so stock isn’t left waiting when it lands.
- Speak to your forwarder now. Space and quotes move fast at this time of year.
At Quick Cargo, we’ve been doing this for over 40 years. We’re based near London Heathrow and handle air, sea and road freight, customs clearance and warehousing, with one team looking after it from collection to delivery.
If you have stock in Asia and a deadline, call us this week on +44 1753 681900 or get in touch here.
